Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.27 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the bearish potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

The dollar maintained its stability against the Japanese yen, despite the risk of Japanese central bank intervention and weak data on the growth rate of the American economy at the end of last year. The observed decline began even before the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, indicating more structural issues. The lowered economic growth now provides a more realistic view of the actual situation. This suggests that, even without accounting for external factors related to the Middle East conflict, the American economy was already showing signs of cooling. Despite this, the dollar did not decline in response to this information. Likely, market participants are currently more concerned about a new round of geopolitical conflict than about a slowing US economy. Traders will probably continue to carefully monitor the situation, but final conclusions about the long-term implications for the dollar and the US economy will be drawn later.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.41 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.80 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.80, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). It's best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant USD/JPY drawdowns. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 159.24 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 159.41 and 159.80.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price reaches 159.24 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 158.86, where I plan to exit my shorts and also open longs in the opposite direction immediately (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). It's best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price hits 159.41 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 159.24 and 158.86.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.